In the winter of 2022/2023, excess death estimates for Germany indicated a 10% elevation, which has led to questions about the significance of this increase in mortality. Given the inherent errors in demographic forecasting, the reliability of estimating a 10% deviation is questionable. This research addresses this issue by analyzing the error distribution in forecasts of weekly deaths. By deriving empirical prediction intervals, we provide a more accurate probabilistic study of weekly expected and excess deaths compared to the use of conventional parametric intervals.